James H. Coppens
Post Number: 122
Posted From: 184.108.40.206
|Posted on Monday, June 14, 2010 - 03:10 pm: |
Dear John, do you recall we communicated when I was in Mainz last month? I am confused by your spreadsheet. I was looking for something there that told me what was the best departure point to go to Rota from the East Coast of the US. Can you enlighten me further? JC
James H. Coppens
Post Number: 121
Posted From: 220.127.116.11
|Posted on Monday, June 14, 2010 - 03:02 pm: |
Good analysis, confirming my thoughts on the matter.
Post Number: 4668
Posted From: 18.104.22.168
|Posted on Monday, June 14, 2010 - 01:10 pm: |
This isn't my product - I just posted it on behalf of another member.
Jay D Lagree
Post Number: 26
Posted From: 22.214.171.124
|Posted on Monday, June 14, 2010 - 11:39 am: |
OUTSTANDING info John !!!
It supports my anecdotal impressions.
I can't remember a time when there were so many flights between Spangdahlelm/Ramstein - US East Coast.
Wish we could make your message into a "Sticky" that stayed at the top of the flight information until the situation changed.
Post Number: 4660
Posted From: 126.96.36.199
|Posted on Saturday, June 12, 2010 - 07:47 pm: |
Posted on behalf of Geff McCarthy.
I have been tracking available flights and seats for the last two weeks. See data on spreadsheet, and particularly the summary graph to Europe.
No CONUS flights are shown, except McChord and Travis eastbound.
There are a few missing data points. The data is from the first morning message only, no updated data. Only flights that listed tentative or firm seats are shown. Numerous other flights were scheduled with “no tentative seats.”
Whenever seats are quoted on the recordings, I have entered the daily total in the cell. Otherwise it is a number of flights listed on that day. I talked with passenger agents a few times; their comments are listed below each destination.
Conclusions, all based on Cat VI availability to Europe from E Coast bases:
Flights available does not represent seats available! It is only an indicator of possible availability.
Locations vary in the presentation of flights and seats. Ideally, all seats available for the day would be listed on the recording. The seats seem to be known only a few hours in advance.
It is usually possible to fly from McChord to the east coast daily.
Travis has some W-E availability, but fewer seats than McChord.
Charleston has numerous flights to Europe, but at least half have no seats. Agents can confirm bad or good chances for a given day.
Dover has 100-200 seats per week, but considerable variability. Agents confirm that most CatVI get to Europe with in a day or 2.
McGuire has 2-5 flights per week, with good seat availability.
BWI rarely has CatVI seats, despite 100-200 seats per week.
Cat VI can freely travel back from Spangdahlem and Ramstein.
Both have 3-8 flights each day.
Agent at Spangdahlem confirms that some seats are empty, and same-day back is usually possible.
Ramstein agent also confirms that most days, CatVI can fly.
Rota has 1-3 flights per day to CONUS, with good availability, per the agent.
Mildhenhall has irregular trips to CONUS, about 4 per week, with unpredictable seats. Frequently their message confirms no space A.
SPAT within Europe:
Rota has frequent flights to Sigonella, but rare to Germany or UK.
Mildenhall flights to Germany occur about 3-5 per week.
The warnings about Cat VI summer travel may be overstated. However, this data is seasonal: Schools are still in session, particularly DODDS!
This data is of moderate utility. It does not measure passenger flow, but only shows aircraft flow, and only aircraft with “tentative” seats.
If the actual passenger flows were known, a predictor of “success” could be calculated. It might show “%CatVI accommodated today”, or the equally useful converse, “empty seats today” in the desired direction.
The Last Category Moved is a useful data point, but is sporadic, incomplete data.
The best metric for a departure base would probably be: “Daily average seat availability in xxxxx direction. The “loggies” out there will have expertise from moving cargo. After all, we SPATS are cargo of opportunity!
I wonder if we could persuade each base to identify the previous day’s movements, in general, on the first morning recording: “Yesterday the highest category moved was Cat IV. About 50 CatVI are waiting for seats to Europe”. That would be a useful predictive measure, day to day. Or maybe each base would agree to release that message to a single volunteer posting officer, such as the Flight Schedule volunteers.